HDB imposes checklists on resale flats

Business Times - 25 Mar 2008

THE Housing and Development Board will introduce mandatory checklists for housing agents handling resale flat transactions from May 1 - a move welcomed by industry players.

The checklists cover key policies and procedures that housing agents will need to advise resale flat buyers and sellers on before they commit to a transaction, HDB said yesterday.

‘This is part of HDB’s ongoing efforts to ensure that buyers and sellers are aware of the relevant HDB purchase and financing policies when buying/selling an HDB flat,’ it said.

The move comes after a new scam involving HDB flats surfaced recently. Under the scam, a seller and buyer together report a falsely low sale price to HDB.

The buyer then pays the difference between the actual and declared price to the seller in cash, which means the seller has more cash in hand - rather than having any leftover money go back into his CPF account. To sweeten the deal, the seller usually gives the buyer a discount on the market value of the flat.

Under HDB’s new initiative, housing agents will have to submit a completed resale checklist to HDB with a resale application. Resale applications that do not comply with this requirement will be rejected and there will be ’serious penalties’ for false declarations.

Housing agents engaged by both sellers and buyers will have to go through a resale checklist with clients before an option to purchase (OTP) is granted or exercised.

Buyers and sellers who do not engage the services of housing agents need not submit a checklist. PropNex, which says it has more than 40 per cent of the public housing resale market, welcomed HDB’s move.

Public housing has many policies and financing requirements that many may not be familiar with, said PropNex chief executive Mohamed Ismail.

Most buyers tend not to read the important notes attached to OTP, he said.

The new resale checklist for housing agents engaged by buyers, for example, will ensure that buyers are aware of their rights as well as of financing matters. It will also highlight to them the fact that any form of cashback arrangement, such as over or under declaration, is punishable by law.

Similarly, the checklist for sellers’ housing agents will ensure prospective sellers understand the various eligibility rules.

Mr Ismail said that while many agents already educate potential buyers and sellers, some may not, leaving them in the dark.

‘This initiative should lead to greater transparency for buyers and sellers, and ensure a consistently high level of professionalism amongst the agents,’ he said.

Home, retail, office rental growth to ease

Business Times - 25 Mar 2008

Housing rentals to rise 5-15% year-on-year in 2008: Knight Frank

PRIVATE housing rents are expected to grow at a slower pace this year than last year, Knight Frank said in a report yesterday.

The property consultancy firm expects a year-on-year rise of 5-15 per cent in 2008 - after a massive 40 per cent year-on-year increase in 2007.

Knight Frank’s estimates are based on the resistance of tenants and companies to even higher rents, and the limited availability of places at foreign schools for children of expatriates.

‘Due to the fact that foreign schools are full and there are long waiting lists faced by children of foreign families who relocated here, housing demand from new foreign family tenants is projected to decrease,’ Knight Frank said.

‘On top of this, foreign tenants as well as corporate HR (departments) have readjusted housing allowances this year, which constricts rental demand according to their budgets.’

Despite this, a demand-supply imbalance could still result in rental rises until a supply of new units is felt significantly from 2009.

About 8,400 new private homes will be completed this year. But the number will expand dramatically in the three years from 2009 to 2011, with an estimated 16,000 to 17,000 units completed each year.

This could put downward pressure on rents, Knight Frank said.

The same holds true for the retail sector. Knight Frank predicts that landlords could face stronger resistance from retailers to rising rents in the later part of 2008 as more space comes on stream.

‘Rents are forecast to maintain at their current level only until early 2008,’ it said. ‘Faced with a larger supply in the pipeline in the second half of 2008, island-wide prime retail rents are projected to appreciate by a relatively modest 5-10 per cent for entire 2008, compared to 22.1 per cent growth in 2007.’

Knight Frank also said growth in office rents and capital values in 2008 and 2009 will likely to be more moderate than in 2007. Office rents are forecast to rise 10-20 per cent year on year, while capital values are expected to increase 10-15 per cent year on year.

Don’t know what to do during the current property lull?

Business Times - 25 Mar 2008

PROPERTY EXPERTS GIVE SOME TIPS

Seven tips for buying a second home

Did you know, for example, that an HDB flat near an MRT station will give you a higher rental yield than most private properties?

The importance of being earnest when going en bloc

A major en bloc sales agent discusses the impact of the new legislation on collective sales introduced last year on warring owners.

Are you overpaying for your home loan?

Is the deferred payment period on the condo unit you bought a little while ago expiring soon? Read an independent mortgage broker’s advice before you go shopping for that home loan.

Aim for a landed home

So you’ve missed out buying a condo last year? Not to worry. Landed homes may become more appealing this year as they have yet to see the sharp price appreciation experienced by their non-landed counterparts.

3,500 vied for 714 condo-like flats in Boon Keng, but only 460 sold

The Straits Times March 25, 2008

THOUSANDS of applications poured in for a condo-like Housing Board project in January - but as of last week, less than two-thirds of the flats had been taken up.

About a third of the 714 units - or about 250 units - in City View @ Boon Keng remained unsold, said HSR Property Group, which is marketing the project.

These flats will be offered to the public, probably via walk-in selection.

The number of leftover units came as a surprise to market watchers, given that 3,500 applicants had vied for them.

This works out to five would-be buyers for each flat at City View, the second public housing project to be built by a private developer.

It boasts condo-like features such as timber floors, built-in wardrobes and air-conditioning.

All the applicants were given a chance to book the flats they wanted, said HSR project director Kellie Liew.

The selection process stretched over 20 days and ended last Thursday, with more than 3,000 potential deals falling through.

Developer Hoi Hup Sunway sold about 460 units, including six of the top-priced five-room units at $727,000 each, said Ms Liew.

But she added that some buyers backed out of their purchases due to the weakening property market, while others did not meet the required criteria to buy the flats.

‘We’ve been having a series of not-too-positive news about the market, so that could have affected the sentiment of the buyers,’ she said.

‘Also, some applicants were over-qualified, with combined monthly incomes of more than $8,000, so they were not eligible for the flats.’

Hoi Hup declined to comment.

Market watchers suggested that the relatively high prices for the City View units could also have proved a deterrent at crunch time.

The three-room flats were priced between $349,000 and $394,000, double the price tag of similar flats in the vicinity.

Five-room flats went for up to $727,000, which experts said was close to condominium prices.

‘Some people may have jumped on the bandwagon because of the hype, but when it was time to pick up a unit, they felt it was actually too expensive,’ said Mr Mohamed Ismail, chief executive of property agency PropNex.

‘In today’s market, there are many 99-year leasehold properties with full condo facilities that are going for less than $600 per sq ft, so some buyers may have thought twice.’

But Mr Chris Koh, director of Dennis Wee Properties, believes the remaining units could be snapped up quickly.

‘Fundamentals are still strong,’ he said. ‘We don’t see property prices sliding at all.’

He added that the situation could mirror that of The Premiere @ Tampines, the first developer-built public housing project.

The Premiere drew almost 6,000 applications for its 616 units when it was launched in 2006, but fewer than 500 units were sold when the booking process was over.

When the remaining flats were released to the public, long queues formed and would not disperse despite a downpour.

US crisis deepens as home owners turn to short-term loans

The Straits Times March 25, 2008

Such ‘payday loans’ come with high interest rates, piling on the debts

CLEVELAND (OHIO) - AS HUNDREDS of thousands of American home owners fall behind on their mortgage payments, more are turning to short-term loans with sky- high interest rates to get by.

While hard figures are hard to come by, evidence from non-profit credit and mortgage counsellors suggests that the number of people using these so-called ‘payday loans’ is growing. This is a negative sign for economic recovery as the United States housing crisis deepens.

‘We’re hearing from around the country that many folks are buried deep in payday loan debts as well as struggling with their mortgage payments,’ said Mr Uriah King, a policy associate at the Centre for Responsible Lending.

A payday loan is typically for a few hundred dollars, with a term of two weeks, and an interest rate as high as 800 per cent. The average borrower ends up paying back US$793 for a US$325 loan, according to the centre.

The centre also estimates that these lenders issued more than US$28 billion (S$38.9 billion) in loans in 2005. This was the latest available figure.

In the Union Miles district of Cleveland, which has been hit hard by the crisis, all the regular banks have been replaced by payday lenders.

‘When distressed home owners come to us, it usually takes a while before we find out if they have payday loans because they don’t mention it at first,’ said Ms Lindsey Sacher, the community relations coordinator at non-profit East Side Organising Project, which works to refinance US sub-prime mortgage borrowers on the verge of default or foreclosure. ‘But by the time they come to us for help, they have nothing left.’

On top of the steep cost, payday loans have an even darker side, Ms Sacher noted. ‘We also have to contend with the fact that payday lenders are very aggressive when it comes to getting paid.’

Mr Bill Faith, executive director of the Coalition on Homelessness and Housing in Ohio, an umbrella group representing some 600 nonprofit agencies in Ohio, said the state is home to some 1,650 payday loan lenders. This is more than all of Ohio’s fast food franchises put together.

‘That’s saying something, as the people of Ohio really like their fast food,’ Mr Faith said. ‘But payday loans are insidious because people get trapped in a cycle of debt.’

Mr Robert Frank, an economics professor at Cornell University, equates payday loans with ‘handing a suicidal person a noose’.

‘These loans lead to more bankruptcies and wipe out people’s savings, which is bad for the economy,’ he said.

‘This is a problem that has been caused by deregulation’ of the US financial sector in the 1990s.

REUTERS

Singapore inflation stays at 26-year high

The Straits Times March 25, 2008

Prices jump 6.5%, driven by higher food, transport and housing costs

CONSUMER prices surged 6.5 per cent last month from a year ago, continuing a rate of increase not seen in 26 years.

Food, transport and housing costs were again the main drivers as a confluence of external and internal factors kept last month’s inflation at just a shade off January’s 6.6 per cent.

The figure - released by the Department of Statistics yesterday - was broadly within market expectations. A Bloomberg News poll of 17 economists tipped a rate of 6.8 per cent.

Experts said rising prices will persuade the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to keep its policy of allowing the local currency to strengthen, to help fight off higher prices of imported goods.

But there is less consensus as to whether the central bank will get more aggressive when it holds its scheduled review next month.

Any tightening of monetary policy will hurt an already slowing economy.

‘February’s consumer price index moderated a touch but still stayed elevated,’ said Goldman Sachs economists Mark Tan and Michael Buchanan, who expect inflation to peak at around 7 per cent in the first half of the year.

Prices of meat and poultry, cooking oils and dairy products clocked double-digit gains, while rice, cereal and fruit cost almost 10 per cent more than they did last year.

High oil prices also made themselves felt in electricity bills and at petrol pumps.

Indeed, transport costs jumped 9.6 per cent, boosted also by higher taxi fares and car prices.

Housing costs surged the most at 8.8 per cent. But this was mostly a pass-on effect from January’s one-off revision in annual home values.

Health-care costs rose 7.4 per cent from higher hospitalisation fees and medical consultation charges - and also as Chinese herbs became costlier.

Standard Chartered Bank economist Alvin Liew said sustained increases in this area are of concern, especially as the population gets older.

He noted that the sector is especially dependent on foreign nurses. Competition for these workers and the rising currencies of their home countries may be driving up wage costs in Singapore.

The statistics department also highlighted foreign maid salaries, holidays, cable subscriptions and cigarettes as other significant sources of inflation.

The Trade and Industry Ministry issued an accompanying statement yesterday, saying the ‘underlying momentum in inflation remained stable’. It expects this to decline ‘during the year’ and is retaining its forecast of 4.5 to 5.5 per cent for annual inflation.

Still, Mr Tan and Mr Buchanan believe the MAS will move next month to allow for a faster appreciation of the Singapore dollar.

‘Slowing growth is an obstacle…but in our view, the easing in fiscal settings revealed in the 2008 Budget and low interest rates will provide a buffer to growth,’ they said.

But Citigroup economist Kit Wei Zheng reckons the MAS will stay put as growth concerns take precedence.

He raised his full-year inflation forecast to 5.4 per cent, ahead of the latest data. But he also slashed his economic growth estimate to 4.7 per cent, from 5.2 per cent, citing worsening United States conditions.

Realising the Marina Bay vision

Business Times - 22 Mar 2008

CHING TUAN YEE and BENJAMIN NG reflect on the planning of Singapore’s most ambitious urban project and highlight the exciting developments in store for Singaporeans and visitors alike

THE vision for Marina Bay is that of a high-quality, 24/7 live-work-play environment, one that encapsulates the essence of the global city Singapore is envisaged to be.

Waterfront business districts such as Canary Wharf in London and Pudong in Shanghai have come, in recent years, to signify urban progress and prosperity. They have raised the international profile of their respective cities while spurring growth and investment.

The Singapore example is in Marina Bay. A seamless extension of Singapore’s flourishing central business district spanning 360 hectares of prime land for development, Marina Bay is our city’s most exciting and ambitious urban project that will support our continuing growth as a major business  and financial hub in Asia.

Set by the water’s edge and with our signature city skyline as a backdrop, Marina Bay is envisioned to be a Garden City by the Bay, a 24/7 destination presenting an exciting array of opportunities for people to explore new living and lifestyle options, exchange new ideas and information for business, and be entertained by rich leisure and cultural experiences in a distinctive environment.

The groundwork for the expansion of the existing CBD (Central Business District) and its transformation into a waterfront business district focused around Marina Bay had been laid as early as the late 1960s. Land adjacent to the CBD was reclaimed in phases between 1969 and 1992.

The Master Plan for Marina Bay focuses on encouraging a mix of uses (commercial, residential, hotel and entertainment) to ensure that the area remains vibrant around the clock.

The concept of ‘white’ site zoning also gives developers more flexibility to decide on the mix of uses for each site, including housing, offices, shops, hotels, recreational facilities and public spaces.

To cater for good connectivity and seamless extension, the development parcels at Marina Bay were planned based on a grid urban pattern which extends from the existing road network within the  CBD.

This grid creates a flexible framework with a series of land parcels that can be amalgamated or subdivided to meet different requirements as well as changing demands and allow the phasing of developments.

Creating signature districts

In the planning of Marina Bay, specific attention was paid to creating value. The land parcels are located within a series of distinctive districts, each focusing around attractive public open spaces and tree-lined boulevards which will provide signature address locations for developments.

Along the waterfront and fronting key open spaces, building heights are kept low. This maximises views to and from individual developments further away from the waterfront, enhancing their attractiveness and creating a dynamic ’stepped-up’ skyline profile as well as more pedestrian scaled areas.

The successful development of Marina Bay is supported by state-of-the-art infrastructure. To date, the government has pumped in more than $4.5 billion to facilitate development of the area.

A Common Services Tunnel housing electrical and telecommunication cables and other utility services underground is being built, making repeated road diggings a thing of the past. An extensive road and rail network has also been planned, with three MRT stations to be built in the area as part  of the new Downtown rail line.

A new vehicular and pedestrian bridge will link Bayfront to Marina Centre. The 280m pedestrian linkway - the longest in Singapore - will sport a dynamic double helix structure. Together with a new waterfront promenade, this will create a continuous walking loop connecting up the necklace of attractions and open spaces around the Bay.

Another key infrastructural project is the Marina Barrage. When officially opened in 2009, it will turn the existing water body into Singapore’s first reservoir in the city. This will serve as a new source of fresh water for Singapore and a new lifestyle attraction allowing for a variety of water-based  activities and events to take place. It will also house Singapore’s tallest fountain project.

The softer touch

Having provided for much of the ‘hardware’ for the new business district, it became clear that URA had to go beyond its traditional roles of urban planning and land sales management. To this end, the Marina Bay Development Agency was set up within URA to focus on the ’software’ for developing  the area. Since then, URA has embarked on a full spectrum of marketing, promotion and place management activities to showcase the uniqueness of this new destination.

To generate more buzz, a calendar of events and activities for public spaces and water bodies has been put in place in partnership with various agencies and the private sector. Signature events, like the Marina Bay Singapore New Year’s Eve Countdown, have become a new urban tradition. Marina Bay has also become the definitive venue for a host of sporting events like the F1 Powerboat Race, the Oakley City Duathlon and the Great Eastern Women’s 10km run.

The shape of things to come

While it will take more than a decade for the entire area at Marina Bay to be fully developed, a host of projects that will offer people from all walks of life exciting and attractive options to live, work and play are already taking shape. These upcoming developments have contributed significantly towards enhancing the area’s reputation as a location that offers something for everyone: a tropical living environment among lush greenery; a bustling global business hub and a lifestyle locale presenting a kaleidoscope of entertainment and leisure choices.

LIVE - by the Bay. Marina Bay has fast become one of the city’s most popular and prestigious residential addresses, with a number of outstanding projects already under construction.

The Sail @ Marina Bay will be the tallest residential development in Singapore at 245 metres when it is completed in 2009. It boasts two towers - one at 70 storeys and the other at 63 storeys.  Meanwhile, the Marina Bay Financial Centre incorporates the 55-storey Marina Bay Residences, comprising 428 luxury apartments, and the Marina Bay Suites, a 66-storey development offering 221 exclusive bayside units.

WORK - by the Bay. With its prime location in the heart of Singapore’s future downtown, Marina Bay continues to be a magnet to global investors and tenants seeking premium office space in a prime location.

The development of Marina Bay will help to further position Singapore as one of Asia’s leading financial centres, doubling the size of the existing financial district. The new growth area set aside for the seamless extension of the existing financial district is more than twice the size of London’s Canary Wharf and will provide some 2.82 million square metres of office space, equivalent to the office space within Hong Kong’s main business district, Central.

Already, a nucleus of office developments is forming with the development of One Raffles Quay, the soon-to-be-completed Marina Bay Financial Centre, and the two recently sold sites at Marina View.

Several global banks and multinational corporations, including UBS, Deutsche Bank, DBS and Standard Chartered, are already located or will be locating in these developments.

PLAY - by the Bay. The ‘fun’ factor at Marina Bay is expected to be raised to a new high when the Marina Bay Sands Integrated Resort opens its doors in 2009. With its impressive design featuring a sky park and three soaring 50-storey hotel blocks with landscaped balconies, the area’s most anticipated project will add a new dimension to our city skyline.

The integrated resort is poised to be a world-class development that will house a casino, two theatres, 110,000 sq metres of meeting and convention facilities, as well as about 2,500 hotel rooms. Other attractions at the integrated resort include restaurants in the form of two floating crystal pavilions and an ArtScience Museum, the rooftop of which becomes an amphitheatre with tiered seating.

Building on Singapore’s green legacy, three world-class waterfront gardens of about 100 hectares have been planned for the area. With the first phase of the project slated for completion in 2010, the Gardens at Marina Bay will be another unique destination attraction for those visiting Singapore and a green sanctuary for people living and working in the city.

Each garden will feature a distinctive design and character. All three gardens will also be interconnected via a series of pedestrian bridges to form a larger loop along the whole waterfront and linked to surrounding developments, open public spaces, transport nodes and attractions.

Focal point for the community

Marina Bay is a prime example of a visionary masterplan that is not only well on its way to becoming a new focal point for the local community, but it has also drawn worldwide attention and interest.

Testament to this is its achievement in attracting close to $16.5 billion worth of private investments to date from international investors and developers from the US, Hong Kong, Australia, Europe as well as the Middle East.

Moving forward, Marina Bay will continue to be the centrepiece of Singapore’s urban transformation, providing the city with the opportunity to attract new investments, visitors and talents.

The URA, as the Development Agency for Marina Bay, is committed to our long-term and strategic plans to meet the area’s future development needs. We will continue to adopt a holistic and integrated approach in designing the area with people in mind, work with partners and communities to implement key infrastructure, and carry out active promotion and place management activities. We will also engage investors to garner more interesting business concepts and ideas. This will take us closer to our vision of making Marina Bay a choice destination for all, one that promises

Singaporeans and visitors alike a brand-new, live-work-play experience.

Ching Tuan Yee is Executive Architect, Urban Planning Section, Urban Redevelopment Authority, while Benjamin Ng is Place Manager, Marina Bay Development Agency, Urban Redevelopment Authority

Business confidence takes a dive

Business Times - 24 Mar 2008

BT-UniSIM survey shows companies gloomy about next six months, despite strong orders

 (SINGAPORE) Business confidence in Singapore has slumped to its lowest level since end-2004, according to the latest business climate survey by The Business Times (BT) and SIM University (UniSIM).

While sales and profit figures were largely unchanged in the three months to Dec 31, 2007, prospects have fallen dramatically for the next six months, the poll of 128 companies revealed.

This was despite companies reporting a strong pipeline of orders and new business. Some 71 per cent of the firms polled have overseas businesses.

Chow Kit Boey, director of the quarterly BT-UniSIM survey, said: ‘I think the firms may be overly pessimistic because of the grim prospects in the US economy, accompanying volatile and weak stock markets and rising oil prices.’

She said that improved orders and new business numbers suggest that the Singapore economy would not suffer too badly in the first quarter of 2008, given the low growth rate a year ago and the largely successful air show in February.

The quarter marked the 17th successive one with positive net balances in sales and orders as well as new business, she added. ‘This implies that the slowdown could be mild. It appears that the economy could grow at a faster rate in Q1 2008 than in Q4 of 2007.’

Economists polled recently by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) pared their first-quarter growth forecast to a median 5.7 per cent from 7 per cent previously, slightly higher than the 5.4 per cent recorded in Q4 2007.

The BT-UniSIM survey showed that the business prospects net balance - the difference between the percentage of optimistic and pessimistic companies - fell to 20 per cent, from 39 per cent in the third quarter of the year. This was itself a sharp drop from an average of 57 per cent for the first half of 2007, showing how confidence has crashed in recent months.

The drop was particularly severe among large and local firms, whose net balances dropped by more than half from the previous quarter. But foreign firms were about as confident as they were in the preceding three months and, intriguingly, small firms were much more upbeat - net balance for the segment tripled to 26 per cent from 8 per cent.

The overall poor sentiment was partly balanced by healthy orders and new business numbers. The overall net balance - the difference between those reporting more orders or new business and those reporting fewer - rose slightly to 39 per cent, from 32 per cent in the third quarter.

But conditions varied widely across firms. Small companies reported a net balance of minus-one per cent, though still an improvement on the previous quarter (-12 per cent). Foreign companies  recorded a net balance of 51 per cent, up from 26 per cent previously.

Among sectors, financial and business services was the star performer for the quarter. It had the highest net balances in sales, profits and orders, and new business.

Firms in the construction sector were the most confident of business prospects for the next six months for the eighth quarter running.

Foreign firms recorded the best performances for Q4, with the largest increases in net balances for sales, profits and orders, and new business. Local firms saw the biggest decline, owing partly to weaker profits, said Ms Chow.

And comparing overall and overseas sales, orders and prospects showed that domestic business activities were stronger in the fourth quarter. In the previous three months, businesses found better sales and orders overseas. But small and local firms still saw better prospects from their foreign operations, while foreign and large firms were more optimistic on the local market.

Vietnam is also fast climbing the charts as a favoured investment destination. China and India were the other frontrunners but ‘Vietnam has gained much popularity as an investment destination by almost all types of firms’, said Ms Chow.

The BT-UniSIM survey was launched in 1996 and is now in its 13th year.

Singapore interest rates likely to fall further

The Straits Times March 24, 2008

Fed cut and robust Sing$ could push interbank lending rate below 1%

SINGAPOREANS can expect cheaper mortgages but lower savings and fixed deposit rates in the months to come.

This is after a move by the United States Federal Reserve to slash a key US interest rate last week.

The Fed had cut three-quarters of a point off its federal funds rate, bringing it to 2.25 per cent, to fight a mushrooming credit crisis and a slowing US economy.

Economists in Singapore said the lowering of the Fed funds rate will have a knock- on effect in the Republic.

The Singapore Interbank Offered Rate (Sibor), or the rate at which banks lend to one another, tends to track the Fed rate.

Citigroup economist Kit Wei Zheng said: ‘For Singapore rates, the trend is downwards. We expect the Fed to cut its rate to 1 per cent and Singapore should follow with a lag.’

He lowered his forecast for the Sibor, estimating it would fall to as low as 0.75 per cent by the end of the third quarter, down from an earlier estimate of 1 per cent.

A recent report by DBS Group Research also forecast the Sibor would fall, to 0.83 per cent in the second quarter, and remain at that rate through the second half before rising next year.

The three-month Sibor fell to a 12-month low of 1.25 per cent last Monday, before recovering to 1.425 per cent on Thursday, ahead of the Good Friday public holiday.

Mr Kit said Singapore rates were also affected by the Singapore dollar’s appreciation against the US currency. He said the Singdollar is most probably at the top end of the secret trade-weighted band within which the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) guides the currency.

‘With the Singdollar expected to continue appreciating, MAS will aim to moderate it by flooding the market with liquidity, which will in turn pressure interest rates downwards,’ he said.

OCBC economist Selena Ling said another consequence of the strong Singdollar would be a high inflow of foreign capital into the Republic. ‘This can also contribute to lower interest rates.’

For consumers, the net result is both good and bad.

Banks recently embarked on a mortgage loan war, with Maybank firing the first salvo last month with an aggressive three-year, fixedrate package offered at 1.68 per cent for the first year.

DBS Bank and United Overseas Bank (UOB) have also unveiled attractive packages. UOB has one that offers a zero rate in the first year.

And with Sibor-linked home loan package rates likely to head south too, it could be a good time to refinance mortgage loans, experts said.

A DBS spokesman said: ‘DBS offers transparent mortgage rates pegged to the Sibor and the CPF Ordinary Account rate, so our rates will move in tandem with market forces.’

But there is also the possibility that savings and fixed deposit rates could slump as interest rates go down.

OCBC’s vice-president for group wealth management, Mr Fabian Lum, said the bank would review its deposit rates to keep them in line with prevailing market conditions.

And while the bank has not changed its savings rate recently, it lowered its 12-month fixed deposit rate for amounts between $50,000 and $1 million to 1.2 per cent a year from 1.4 per cent earlier this month.

DBS said that its savings deposit rates had not been adjusted since 2005, but added that its fixed deposit rates are always pegged to the interbank rate and would thus be adjusted accordingly.

CIMB-GK economist Song Seng Wun said that the low interest rates did not reflect a lack of liquidity on the part of banks. ‘The loansdeposit ratio is still very strong, so banks definitely have the money to lend,’ he said.

‘But I think there is greater caution now, after what has happened in the US with the sub-prime crisis, and people are much more cautious nowadays when it comes to borrowing and lending money.’

PROPERTY: Muted market gives buyers more bargaining power

The Straits Times March 23, 2008

Prices aren’t tumbling but it’s a good time to get a unit at a reasonable price, say experts

IT IS no secret that the residential property market is in a lacklustre mood.

With many buyers and sellers having scurried to the sidelines as the United States sub-prime woes brought about an uncertain stock market, new home sales slipped to a nine-month low last month.

For those looking to buy a home, the question is whether to buy now or later.

As fire sales have yet to hit the market and prices largely appear to be holding steady, it may not yet be a time when bargains abound everywhere.

But property experts say this may be the best time to bargain for a reasonable deal if you have something in mind.

It is a time when sellers - be it developers selling their new developments or individuals selling their properties in the resale market - are more flexible and buyers have more bargaining power, they say.

Generally, developers are still loath to lower their prices. So a good bet now is likely to be the resale market, where sellers can be more flexible, depending on their reasons for wishing to sell their property.

Completed properties also have the advantage of generating an immediate rental yield, or allowing buyers to move in any time they like, consultants say.

‘Right now, bargain-hunting may take place in the secondary market,’ says Mr Donald Han, Cushman & Wakefield’s managing director.

Some sellers may be looking to get out of the property market because they either cannot or do not wish to hold on to the asset on hand, he adds.

There are certainly desperate sellers out there, but it is not as though they are all ready to sell at a major discount or take a significant loss, says a property investor who declined to be named.

Last month, only 185 new homes were sold, down from 328 in January.

If the current standstill in the market continues, some small developers may start to lower their prices, say property consultants.

And if this happens, it will affect the entire market.

Home prices could fall, but by then, other buyers may beat potential buyers to the properties that they like.

This is why some property consultants say it is really an individual’s reading of the market on when to buy.

This is particularly so for those with a specific unit or a small project in mind, or those seeking unusual products such as suburban condominium units with pools.

The freehold 39-unit Ambrosia in Telok Kurau, for example, offers units with swimming pools, which is not common in small projects.

Its nine penthouses and two ground-floor units come with private pools and these have attracted fairly strong interest.

About 30 per cent of the five-storey development has been sold at an average price of $950 per sq ft (psf), says property consultancy Knight Frank, which is marketing the project.

‘Last year, valuation was trying to keep up with transacted prices,’ says Mr Han. ‘Now, transacted prices are keeping up with valuations.’ Mr Eric Cheng, executive director of HSR property group, says: ‘In today’s market, you can find cheap buys.’

But not all units are cheap, even if the sellers are willing to offload their homes without any profit, he adds.

For instance, some sellers at the 99-year leasehold The Rochester in Buona Vista may be keen to sell at around $1,200 psf, which could be the price they bought at last year.

But the project was launched at 2007 prices, at a time when the market was booming, he said, so they are not a real bargain.

Behind latest Fed rate cut, inflation fears loom

The Straits Times - March 20, 2008

WASHINGTON - THE United States central bank cut interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point to 2.25 per cent, less than widely expected but more than what some of its policymakers were comfortable with.

Two of the 10 voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee opposed the cut, preferring ‘less aggressive action’, according to the Federal Reserve’s statement on Tuesday. Markets had expected a bigger 1 percentage point cut.

It was the first time since September 2002 that a pair of policymakers defied their Fed colleagues, and analysts sensed a change in the central bank’s message.

‘The message was, we’re going to be vigilant about inflation,’ Mr Jerry Webman, chief economist at Oppenheimer Funds, told the Chicago Tribune.

He added: ‘We’re going to do other things which treat the problems but avoid going down the traditional monetary path straight into the jaws of inflation. The dissents were part of that message.’

In its statement, the central bank warned of further weakening in the economy and ‘considerable stress’ in financial markets. But one paragraph dwelt on the risks of inflation.

By cutting rates further, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke is placing a heavy bet that commodity prices and other leading indicators of inflation will come down on their own, aided by a slowing economy.

While allowing that ‘uncertainty about the inflation outlook has increased’, the Fed reiterated the view that slower growth and lower ‘resource utilisation’ will bring inflation back into the central bank’s comfort zone.

Given the inflation warnings, Mr Michael Lewis of Free Market said that ‘while the Fed may cut rates at the April 29-30 meeting, we expect that the easing arc is about finished’.

Mr Michael Woolfolk, currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon, told the Chicago Tribune that the next step might be a coordinated effort by major nations to intervene in currency markets to support the US dollar.

Repeated Fed interest rate cuts, as well as a pessimistic outlook towards the US economy, has sent the greenback to record lows - worsening inflation by pushing up the prices of oil and other commodities.

REUTERS, WASHINGTON POST

Strong demand in Asia seen slowing next year

Business Times - 20 Mar 2008

This poses risks as firm US recovery unlikely: consultancy

 (SINGAPORE) Domestic demand in Asian countries this year look strong, but may slow down in 2009. This may present risks to regional countries as the US economy is unlikely to make a strong recovery next year, according to consultancy firm IMA Asia.

‘Many people in the United States say that (the plunge in global financial markets) will present difficulties for Asia because it would mean a slowdown in its export engine, but this is the second  year of slow export growth for Asia,’ noted Richard Martin, IMA Asia managing director. ‘Last year, export growth was pretty weak; it fell from 2006 for most countries in the region.’

He believes the region will sustain its demand growth for this year. ‘We think domestic demand looks secure in China, and in South-east Asia, we see good domestic growth… we’re pretty confident that domestic demand will carry the region for a second year.’

The issue, however, is ‘what happens next year’, said Mr Martin, who was in Singapore yesterday to speak to IMA Asia’s corporate clients on the region’s economic outlook.

‘By the time we get into the third year of weak exports growth, you’re going to see some difference (in growth) in the region,’ he said, adding that the US economy is unlikely to show a strong recovery in 2009.

And that difference, he said, will boil down to two factors - the level of country risk an economy faces, and the degree of reliance it has on the global market. ‘Economies with relatively high country risk will slow down a lot and have some volatility…we also need to look at the degree of reliance on the global market, not only trade reliance but also finance reliance.’

China, for one, ‘looks fine’ as its export sector makes up only about 25 per cent of its gross domestic product, while the country’s investments are financed from its domestic savings, he said. ‘However, we’ll see quite a different impact in a number of other countries. Hong Kong and Singapore face the prospect that their growths will be halved next year, because they’re highly dependent on global trade and global finance, and it’s the financial sector flows in the bank that are being cut back here.’

‘If it was just the trade cut back, we think domestic demand would keep (both economies) going, but once we cool that off, we could see a significant drop in growth in these economies.’ In view of these factors, Mr Martin advised companies to start revising their plans for next year.

Cheung Kong pips Far East in URA tender

Business Times - 20 Mar 2008

It offers $305psf ppr for West Coast condo plot next to Blue Horizon

 (SINGAPORE) Cheung Kong Holdings-linked Billion Rise yesterday pipped Far East Organization to emerge as top bidder for a 99-year leasehold condo site facing West Coast Park and overlooking the sea.

Billion Rise’s bid of $110.44 million or $305 per square foot per plot ratio (psf ppr) was just 1.4 per cent higher than the next highest offer of $301 psf ppr by Far East unit Tian Hock Properties.

The tender for the choice plot, next to Blue Horizon condo developed by Far East, attracted 12 bids. City Developments and TID, Allgreen Properties, Frasers Centrepoint, MCL Land, Sim Lian, a Kheng Leong unit and Hoi Hup Realty were among the other bidders. Entities linked to Alpha Investment Partners and Teambuild Construction also took part in the tender.

Yesterday’s outcome was in a sharp contrast to that at a state tender last week for a landed housing plot at Jurong West when there were just two bids - both way below market expectations. The Housing & Development Board, which conducted that tender, decided not to award the site.

On offer at yesterday’s tender, conducted by Urban Redevelopment Authority, was a more appealing site near the sea and a short drive from the VivoCity shopping and entertainment complex.

‘The plot attracted an overwhelming response of 12 bids from major and mid-size developers and contractors,’ said CB Richard Ellis executive director Li Hiaw Ho. ‘It signals developers’ confidence in the suburban segment despite the current lukewarm response to new projects.’

Notwithstanding the wide participation in yesterday’s tender, the top bid of $305 psf ppr was towards the lower end of the $260-400 psf ppr range of bids indicated by property consultants when the site was launched in January.

Industry sources suggested that Cheung Kong’s breakeven cost for the condo could be about $600- 630 psf. ‘It is likely that units in the proposed development will be sold at an average price of around $750-800 psf,’ said Knight Frank director Nicholas Mak.

Units at Blue Horizon next door were transacted at an average price of $740 psf in Q4 last year.

Market watchers had expected Cheung Kong, controlled by Hong Kong tycoon Li Ka-shing, to be awarded the latest site. The last time that a company in Mr Li’s stable was awarded a 99-year condo site in a state tender here was 11 years ago in early 1997, when Japura Pte Ltd placed the top bid of $456.51 psf ppr for a site in Bayshore Road, which it later developed into the Costa Del Sol condo that boasted sweeping views of Singapore’s eastern shoreline.

Costa Del Sol is in front of The Bayshore condo, which was developed by Far East. This time, the heavyweights took the competition to the West Coast.

Foreigners snap up homes as rents start to bite

Business Times - 12 Mar 2008Their purchases could account for half of 2007 transactions on the secondary market

 (SINGAPORE) A record number of foreigners here have opted to purchase homes instead of renting them at ever-climbing rates.

According to an analysis of transactions of private residential properties by DTZ Debenham Tie Leung, foreigners bought 6,536 non-landed homes from the secondary market in 2007 - the largest number since 1995.

They could account for more than 50 per cent of the secondary market transactions last year. That is because while more than 20,000 non-landed homes were sold on the secondary market last year, this number includes the units from more than 100 collective sales. DTZ’s analysis does not include en bloc units - though earlier reports had put this figure at around 6,000 for the first half of 2007 alone.

Purchases by foreigners on the secondary market represent a 105 per cent increase in volume compared to 2006.

DTZ research senior director Chua Chor Hoon said that while some buyers were investors, there were also those who ‘are not on company budget and find it more worthwhile to buy rather than face escalating rentals, especially if they are going to be in Singapore for more than a couple of years’.

DTZ’s figures for 2007 reveal that rents of prime apartments and condominiums increased 45 per cent year-on-year in 2007 to average $4.80 per square foot (psf). This was attributed to the influx of expatriates and a tight supply of prime apartments, as numerous prime developments were demolished or slated for redevelopment after being collectively sold.

The percentage of foreigners buying non-landed property from the primary market (developer sales) was lower at 25.4 per cent, or 2,314 transactions out of a total of 9,089, reinforcing the assertion that foreigners are more inclined to buy a home for immediate occupation.

Indonesians and Malaysians remain the biggest foreign buyers here, accounting for 23 and 17 per cent of all foreigners in 2007 respectively, but Indians (12 per cent), Britishers (8 per cent), Chinese (7 per cent) and Koreans (7 per cent) are also well represented.

While foreigners bought non-landed homes in record numbers last year, boosting demand in the process, their absence in the landed homes sector (because of restrictions imposed by the government) did not stop a record number of landed homes being sold in the secondary market.

DTZ’s analysis reveals that of the total 5,211 landed homes sold in 2007, 4,823 were from the secondary market.

Apart from the bullish sentiment which ’spilled over’ from the non-landed sector last year, the landed sector also saw demand rise as it was still considered comparatively good value.

DTZ’s figures show that average capital values for non-landed freehold homes in the prime districts increased by 55 per cent

year-on-year to $1,480 psf.

For freehold landed homes in the prime districts, average capital values of detached homes increased 31 per cent year- onyear, while average capital values of semi-detached and terrace homes rose 29 and 27 per cent respectively.

The situation was also exacerbated by the tight supply of new launches of landed homes in the year, estimated at around 650 units.

DTZ’s Ms Chua also believes that with speculation less rampant in the landed housing sector - ‘most buyers are owneroccupiers’ - prices are expected to be more stable and could even prove ‘more resilient’ if the downturn in the global economy is protracted.

However, DTZ expects future supply of landed homes to be relatively low at just 3,100 units over the next few years, so this could push up demand and prices for both primary and secondary market landed homes.

Speculation, defined by the number of subsales, was rampant among developer sales of non-landed homes last year, hitting an all-time high of 4,631 transactions - a 312 per cent year-on-year increase over 2006.

Interestingly, while subsale transaction volume in 2007 was just 27 per cent higher than during the previous peak of 1996, the value of subsales was almost twice as high, hitting $7.9 billion.

The fourth quarter, however, marked a shift in sentiment in the property market. Only 3,947 non-landed homes were transacted in the quarter, of which just 846 were sold by developers, reflecting a 64 per cent quarter-on-quarter drop. This was one of the worst performing quarters in the last three years.

Guocoland dives on options lapse

Business Times - 12 Mar 2008

Shares hit as Kuwaiti-linked fund pulls out of $815m property purchase

SHARES of Guocoland fell victim yesterday to news that a fund company managed by Kuwait Finance House (Malaysia) Berhad (KFHMB) did not exercise options to buy $814.8 million worth of  apartments in Guocoland’s upmarket project here.

Following analysts’ downgrade, the stock dived as much as 19 cents or 5 per cent to an intra-day low of $3.64 before closing at $3.70, down 13 cents or 3.4 per cent. More than 420,000 shares changed hands.

But the reaction from property counters was mixed, with Ho Bee falling two cents to 95 cents and SC Global dipping four cents to $1.50. Keppel Land edged up five cents to $5.35 and CapitaLand gained 18 cents to $5.89.

The fund company managed by KFHMB had purchased options in December last year to buy 97 units at the premier freehold development Goodwood Residence. There are only 210 exclusive units on this 24,845-sq-m estate fronting the expansive Goodwood Hill. KFHMB is the Malaysian unit of Kuwait Finance House (KFH).

Guocoland said on Monday that although the options have lapsed, the parties are still in discussions, with a view to granting fresh options for units in the development.

It is not known why the fund did not exercise the options, but Guocoland said in its Monday announcement that ‘the current private residential property market appears to be cautious in Singapore’. This could have prompted its decision to market Goodwood Residence units selectively at a later date.

But in the stock market yesterday, speculation was rife over reasons for the lapse. Some cited the cautious market sentiment while others cited over-pricing of the units. There was even talk of an unsuccessful marketing campaign for these units by KFH in Dubai. The median price of $3,200 per square feet that the KFHMB fund agreed was earlier seen by some as a possible benchmark pricing for the area.

DBS Vickers yesterday cut its rating on Guocoland to ‘hold’ from ‘buy’ and lowered its target price to $4.14 from $5.60 after revising downwards its average selling price estimates for Guocoland’s high-end and mid-tier projects and ascribing a 15 per cent discount to Guocoland’s revalued net asset value.

‘We believe that the decision by KFHMB to allow these options to lapse is a sign of the weak sentiment in the physical property market currently, particularly in the high-end segment,’ the brokerage said.

But Westcomb Financial Group said it believes that this lapse of options ’should not be taken as a signal that the Singapore private residential property market has fallen drastically.

‘In fact, the buyer has overpaid their purchases in December 2007, maybe with the view that the market would continue its uptrend in 2008.’

 

Landed housing plot draws top bid of just $77.80 psf

Business Times - 12 Mar 2008

Only one other offer made; poor show seen as sign of uncertain market

IN what is seen as a sign of an uncertain property market, a landed housing parcel in Jurong West drew only two bids, and a low top bid of $11.8 million - or just $77.80 per square foot (psf) - at the close of a government land tender yesterday.

The higher bid, put in by Boon Keng Development, was significantly below what analysts had said the site could fetch.

Cushman & Wakefield managing director Donald Han, for example, reckoned that the plot would fetch $200-$250 psf of land area.

‘The price is really below expectation,’ said Mr Han yesterday. ‘But with the market sentiment being so weak, you can expect wild swings in prices. Developers will be sitting on the sidelines or might not want to bid their best prices.’

The other bid was put in by Sunway Concrete Products, a unit of Malaysian- listed Sunway Holdings. It offered $10.3 million, or $68.1 psf of land area.

Li Hiaw Ho, executive director for research at CB Richard Ellis, said that both bids were ‘relatively conservative’ and reflected the current cautious sentiment in the market.

The 99-year leasehold site on Westwood Avenue has a land area of 151,759 sq ft. Property analysts estimate that some 50-60 landed homes can be built on the site.

‘Nevertheless, based on the highest bid of $78 psf, terrace houses on this site could still be sold for $900,000 to $1 million each,’ Mr Li said. This is slightly higher than recent transactions of intermediate terrace houses in nearby Westwood Park and Westville, which were between $820,000 and $990,000 each.

Potential buyers, Mr Li added, could comprise locals working in the manufacturing firms in Jurong and Tuas, as well as academics at nearby Nanyang Technological University.

Market watchers, however, said that it is possible that the government might not award the site because of the low price.

The price looks especially low when considering other recent government sales of landed housing plots, Mr Han pointed out.

In October, the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) auctioned off 12 sub-divided landed housing plots near Sembawang Beach which can be developed into a total of 57 landed homes. The auction fetched a total of $37.09 million, which worked out to about $285 psf of land area on average.

And in January, the government decided not to sell a short-term office site in Aljunied because the sole bid offered too low a price. The decision followed a recent string of lower-than-expected offers for state land.

Wild swing reflects fears of US slowdown

Business Times - 12 Mar 2008

SHORT-COVERING and a late afternoon rebound on Nasdaq futures saw the Singapore market’s benchmark index chalking a remarkable 80-point turnaround in intra-day trading, first plunging to a new 16-month low, then rebounding to close in positive territory. Also boosting the market are expectations that the Federal Reserve may intervene more aggressively to address the impact of the tightening credit crunch.

Nevertheless the wild gyration characterised investor nervousness amid intensifying fears of a US recession and concern that tightening money market conditions could trigger a third wave of the global credit crisis.

After initially opening at a low of 2,794.62 points, the Straits Times Index dribbled sideways for much of the morning session before a late afternoon recovery by index movers like Singapore Telecom, DBS Bank, CapitaLand, Singapore Exchange and OCBC helped the index climb to its late afternoon high at 2871.60 points. It closed at 2,860.85 points, for a net 24.26-point gain.

However, the day started with a jolt for property stocks after Kuwait Finance House pulled out of a $818.4 million deal to buy 97 of GuocoLand’s apartments in its Singapore Goodwood Residence. GuocoLand - controlled by Malaysian property tycoon Quek Leng Chan - plunged to a low at $3.64, before recovering to close with a net 13-cent loss at $3.70.

Although other leading property plays like City Developments, controlled by Mr Quek’s cousin Kwek Leng Beng, and CapitaLand recovered to end the session in positive territory, the pullout by the Kuwaiti bank is nevertheless seen as an ominous sign for the residential property market here. Analysts said the move raises fears that the property sector may be heading for a serious downturn after a sharp run-up which started in late 2006.

Meanwhile, the larger concern for many investors is not so much whether the US is already in a recession, but how long the slowdown will last. Last week, the US employment report showed the economy lost 63,000 jobs in February, bringing job losses in the first two months of 2008 to 85,000. And US consumer confidence fell sharply in March, according to the latest reading of the RBC Cash Index, which at 33.1, is the lowest reading since data tracking began in 2002.

Traders say that while many Singapore listed stocks have retraced to attractive valuation levels, fears of a potential major capitulation on Wall Street and concerns over the direction and sustainability of the Chinese market  and economy is keeping investors sidelined.

In an online research report yesterday, Kim Eng said the Singapore index had a 22 per cent downside from current levels.

‘Since 1964, the five major bear markets in Singapore lasted an average of two years,’ Kim Eng’s Kelive noted. ‘The shortest one ran for 14 months (Jun ‘81 to Aug ‘82) while the longest down cycle extended 3¼ years (Dec ‘99 - Apr ‘03), albeit Sars had extended the crisis by an additional 1½ years. Within bear trends, there can be sharp rebounds as seen during Oct ‘81 - Jan ‘82 (+26 per cent), Jan-Mar ‘98 (+29 per cent) and Sept ‘01 - Mar ‘02 (+37 per cent). Assuming the current downturn lasts 14 months, the earliest that the market can expect to recover is end 2008.’

The research house sees DBS, UOB, CapitaLand, City Developments and SembCorp Industries as having the greatest downside risk among bluechips. Keppel Corp is the safest bet, it added.

Space crunch in Orchard pushes docs to Novena

March 12, 2008

The area could turn into medical hub as more private doctors set up clinics there

PRIVATE doctors are flocking to the Novena area as the squeeze on clinic space in the Orchard Road belt tightens.

The migration could turn the area into Singapore’s newest centre for private health services, some believe.

In the space of two years, developer Far East Organization has already sold or leased 92 per cent of the 145 medical suites at its new Novena Medical Centre (NMC).

Private doctors at the centre, which opened last October, are allowed to use some X-ray machines and labs in Tan Tock Seng Hospital (TTSH), which is just across the street.

Developers in the area are also setting space aside for private doctors, as well as accommodation for patients and their families.

The spill-over of demand has prompted Far East to house another 64 clinics in its 28-storey hotel in nearby Sinaran Drive. The group plans to either sell or lease the suites when ready, which is likely to be by 2010.

In Newton Road, SC Global Developments will also save space for medical suites in its upcoming office building, Newton 200.

Private specialists can also look to the Parkway Group’s new hospital in Irrawaddy Road, which is scheduled to open in July 2011. The group is setting aside 30 per cent of its space for them.

Medical suites in Novena occupy about one-third of the space that clinics in Orchard do. At about 24,154 sq m in total, they cover about the same area as Clarke Quay.

This spate of activity is fuelled by the Government’s plan to attract one million foreign patients a year by 2012.

Mr G.L. Yap, executive director for Far East Organization’s property services, said: ‘The infrastructure has to keep pace with expectations of growth.’

Foreign patients number more than 400,000 a year and come mainly from Indonesia and Malaysia, with increasing numbers from China, the Middle East and developed countries. They come for a range of treatments, including day surgery and routine health checks.

Spending on so-called medical tourism averaged about $1.3 billion in 2006 and is expected to double by 2012, according to Dr Jason Yap, director of health-care services at the Singapore Tourism Board.

The space crunch is already being felt by medical centres at Mount Elizabeth, Gleneagles, Paragon and Camden.

Company officials say that, save for three units, the buildings have been totally sold or leased out. While Paragon declined to say how many units it has, the three other centres have more than 540 suites.

The demand for medical suites has been pushing rents up, said property analysts. In the Mount Elizabeth Medical Centre, a suite was last sold for $5,000 psf, up from $4,017 last March.

Colorectal surgeon Francis Seow-Choen bought a unit at Novena two years ago because of high rents. For the past four years, he has also been renting a unit at the Mount Elizabeth Medical Centre, where rents have risen to about $18 psf, from about $8 psf four years ago.

‘The rents here have risen astronomically,’ said Dr Seow-Choen. ‘Instead of being subjected to market forces, I’ve decided to buy a unit in Novena, which as an area has a lot of potential.’

The Singapore Medical Group moved its Sports Medicine Centre from Paragon to the NMC this year, because of the space crunch and the area’s attraction as a sports and medical hub.

Dr Jimmy Lim, a cardiologist who crossed over from TTSH to set up his own clinic at the NMC, said the new clinic allows his previous patients to visit him.

‘Having a restructured hospital and now a private hospital nearby is basically going to give my  patients a wider choice when they use the in-patient facility,’ he said.

Source: The Straits Times

All eyes on govt land tenders this month

Business Times - 11 Mar 2008

$500m site above Serangoon MRT, 3 suburban housing plots on offer

AMID the current quiet market, all eyes will be on four 99-year leasehold suburban Government Land Sale site tenders that close this month.

They comprise three private residential sites including one for landed housing, and a ‘white’ site above the Serangoon Circle Line MRT station that could potentially be worth more than $500 million.

The action kicks off today, with the closing of a tender for a landed housing parcel in Westwood Avenue, Jurong West, big enough for about 50-60 landed homes.

Cushman & Wakefield managing director Donald Han reckons the 151,759 sq ft plot could fetch about $200-250 psf of land area. The plot is next to the landed housing area at Westville. Those looking for clues on how developers read the suburban mass-market residential sector will have to train their eyes on tender closings for two plots this month, both boasting scenic locations.

One is at West Coast Crescent next to Blue Horizon condo and faces West Coast Park and overlooks the sea. The other is in Yishun, fronting Lower Seletar Reservoir and close to Singapore Orchid Country Club/Golf Course. It is also near Khatib MRT station.

Property consultants polled by BT in January, when the tenders for the two sites were launched, indicated bids of about $200-300 psf per plot ratio (ppr) for the Yishun plot.

Mr Han reckons the winning bid will be closer to $300 psf ppr, reflecting a breakeven cost of about $550-600 psf and a possible average selling price of $700-800 psf for the new condo.

As for the West Coast plot, consultants earlier indicated a wide range of bids - $260-400 psf ppr. Mr Han estimates the plot’s value at the higher end of that range, around $380-400 psf ppr as ‘it is near parks, recreational facilities and the sea’, translating to selling prices of about $850-950 psf for a new condo on the site, on a project-average basis.

He expects the Yishun and West Coast condo sites to attract at least five bids each, while the landed housing plot at Westwood Avenue could draw more bids, about five to eight.

‘Developers may be willing to look at smaller profit margins because these are sure-sell markets, given pent-up demand in the mass market. However, buyers are still price-sensitive,’ he said.

While some analysts and consultants still feel the mass-market will be relatively resilient this year, City Developments executive chairman Kwek Leng Beng recently offered a different perspective.

‘The mass market will do well, but selectively. It’s not going to be what you’ve seen before. . . people queuing up,’ he said, noting that the Housing & Development Board provides a credible alternative to mass- market private housing.

The Serangoon Central site was quietly launched in December by the Land Transport Authority. The 269,180 sq ft plot can be developed into an estimated maximum potential gross floor area (GFA) of about 850,000 sq ft excluding a bus interchange that the successful bidder will have to build. The developer will be reimbursed the cost of building the interchange.

The site can be developed into any combination of commercial, hotel, residential, and sports and recreational use.

Cushman’s Mr Han said that assuming 30-40 per cent of the GFA is for retail use and the rest for residential, the plot could be worth about $400-450 psf ppr, or a total of around $340-380 million.

‘So the breakeven cost would be about $700 psf for the residential component and the developer might be able to achieve selling prices of say $900-1,000 psf on average. The retail component will break even at about $1,200-1,400 psf,’ he reckons.

However, other property insiders say that assuming an all-retail development, which would be the ‘highest and best use’ of the site, land bids could come in closer to the $600-700 psf ppr mark (about $500 million to $600 million in total).

Suburban malls are generally valued at about $1,800-2,000 psf of net lettable area currently,’ one player pointed out.

However, another major player countered that sentiment today is subdued, and said the challenge of securing bank finance for such a big project with a likely total investment of about $1 billion or more will put a dampener on bullish bidding for this site.

The action and market watching continues next month, with at least two interesting offerings at state land tenders - a private condo site at Toa Payoh Lorong2/3, and a 1.56-hectare site in Choa Chu Kang for residential development that comes with the existing Ten Mile Junction mall.

China’s growth story due for reality check

Business Times - 11 Mar 2008

Country may face headwinds of a US recession as its stock market, property sector cool

THE beginning of Wen Jiabao’s second term seems remarkably similar to his first. In 2003, when Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao, first took the helm as president and prime minister respectively, they were tested by the Sars crisis.

The pessimism of those like Gordon Chang in The Coming Collapse of China was at its peak. But Mr Hu and Mr Wen weathered that crisis and turned in the best five-year term performance in recent memory.

In 2007, China’s GDP reached RMB24.66 trillion (S$4.8 trillion), an average 10.6 per cent annual real growth from 2002 to 2007. In 2007, Germany defended its position as the world’s third largest economy only by a 2 per cent margin (higher than China) measured by daily-weighted exchange rate.

Also in 2007, China replaced the United States, becoming the world’s second largest goods exporter, next only to Germany. By the end of 2007, China’s foreign currency reserves ballooned to US$1.53 trillion, ranking it first in the world, 5.3 times more than at the end of 2002.

This time, when Mr Hu and Mr Wen are about to start their second term in January, China was plagued by a massive snowstorm and they weathered that too.

While many have doubts about China’s infrastructure quality and crisis control system, I simply cannot think of any other country that could have done a better job at a time when the worst snowstorm in half a century coincided with the Chinese New Year and millions of people were trying to get back home for family reunions and then go back to their places of work within the space of a few weeks.

According to Ma Kai, director of National Development and Reform Commission, China’s planning agency, from Jan 23 to March 2 - a span of 40 days - 196 million people travelled by railways and many millions by road, while the snowstorm almost paralysed the entire transportation network in many parts of China.

The 2003 Sars crisis and the 2008 snowstorms demonstrated China’s ability to overcome any shortlived crisis.

But for Mr Wen, there are much tougher challenges ahead in the first year of his second term. On March 5, at the first session of the 11th National People’s Congress (NPC), Mr Wen set China’s 2008 growth target at 8 per cent. Mr Wen’s 8 per cent target surprised none as this figure has been the regular target in the past few years. It basically comes from the 7-8 per cent long-term growth target which will quadruple China’s 2000 GDP by 2020.

In 2007, when the official target was set at 8 per cent, the real outcome was 11.4 per cent, a 13-year high. But in 2008, China could be nearer to the 8 per cent target.

The first challenge is obviously the US, one of China’s major export markets. In 2007, according to the US official figures, China replaced Canada to become the largest source of imports to the US valued at US$321.5 billion.

But the American economy may be in recession. And many economists wonder how serious it will be and how long the recession will last.

The US has a savings rate of virtually zero; its consumption was supported by an illusion of wealth.

But now more and more Americans owe more in mortgages than the real (current market) value of their homes. Worse, these people are about to pay more on their mortgages, as preferential rates come to an end. Delinquency and foreclosures can be expected and property prices will further drop, thus triggering a vicious cycle.

Some might argue that so far macro economic data only shows signs of a slowdown, not a recession. But you can really get a sense of economic fear from one person - Ben Bernanke, the Fed chairman.

In January, after having said that the sub-prime crisis was ‘containable’ for months, the Fed cut benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points (the biggest move in 23 years) just eight days ahead of a scheduled meeting. And on March 4, Mr Bernanke further urged banks to forgive a portion of mortgage principals.

As many pointed out, unlike the 2000-2001 US recession which was corporate dominated, this recession will be consumption led and therefore will have a much bigger impact on China. At the same time, the prospects for European Union, another important exports market for Chin a, will certainly not be as bright as it was. Facing domestic difficulties, the western world is very likely to practice protectionism and China may become its biggest target.

I project the contribution of net export to China’s GDP growth will be substantially lower this year than 2007.

As well, we are also witnessing the bursting of China’s own asset bubbles. On March 7, Shanghai Composite Index, covering both A and B shares listed on Shanghai Stock Exchange, closed at 4300.5, 30 per cent lower than the 6,124 historic high on Oct 16, 2007. At the same time, property, another bubble no smaller than the stock market, by and large remains intact.

Housing bubble set to burst

You might think that with improving living standard and fast urbanisation, the demand for property is huge in China. But the price is still be the biggest problem. People always see the booming  economy as the reason for a bull stock market, yet it is valuation that you have to look at the end of the day.

For a young couple with a combined monthly salary RMB 15,000 (the salary for fresh graduate is only about RMB 2000-3000), the price of a 70-year tenure apartment with a gross floor area of 120 square metres in a relatively good location in Beijing is equivalent to their 10-year combined salary. While the prices in second tier cities are lower, so are people’s wages.

At the same time, property has been playing a very important role in boosting the economy. In 2007, Chinese invested RMB 2854.3 billion in property, 32.2 per cent higher than 2006, accounting for about 25 per cent of China’s fixed asset investment in urban centres. It is also a hot spot for foreign investment. In 2007, utilised foreign direct investment (FDI) in real estate reached US$17.1 billion, more than double the figure the year earlier. It accounted for 22.7 per cent of China’s total utilised  FDI (excluding the financial sector).

But there are signs that the bubble is beginning to burst. Property brokers felt the pain first. Several high profile brokers have collapsed due to being overstretched and, more importantly, the reduced number of transactions.

Wang Shi, chairman of Vanke, the biggest listed property company in China, said earlier this year China’s property market had reached a turning point. Indeed, Vanke has started to offer price discounts for its housing projects in Guangdong, Chengdu, Shanghai and Beijing.

The world has witnessed a property boom in the past decade, and the collapse of the US housing bubble could trigger the falling of dominoes worldwide. The psychological impact of the collapse of the US property market on China cannot be underestimated. And measured by the relative values (and, in some cases, in absolute value), China’s property prices are even higher than in the US market.

Those who proclaimed ‘We are different’ as far as the stock market was concerned, have finally seen the law of gravity take hold. The property market is very likely to follow suit at some point.

When the bubble does burst, China’s investment growth will slow down greatly as it will influence not only property, but also the steel and the construction materials sector as well. Consequently, the country’s GDP growth will be further reduced.

Probably, China’s GDP growth will fall below 9 per cent this year, for the first time in seven years. But it is still a decent figure compared with the rest of the world.

The slowdown in the country’s exports growth should be a good reminder for China to attach more importance to how to improve product quality and add more value to its products. For instance, in 2007, China exported US$44.1 billion worth of steel products, which was the fourth most important export item by value. For a country facing growing resource shortages and environmental problems, to export steel products rather than more cars is stupid.

And more affordable housing generally will certainly better fit into Mr Hu’s ‘harmonious society’ concept.

Economists trim S’pore Q1 growth forecast to 5.7%

Business Times - 11 Mar 2008

Q2 may see another dip before rebound kicks in; inflation likely to rise

 (SINGAPORE) Private sector economists have pared their forecasts of Singapore’s first quarter GDP growth to a median 5.7 per cent, from 7 per cent three months earlier.

Economic growth is then expected to dip below 5 per cent in Q2 and Q3 before rebounding in the final quarter for a year-round median of 5.6 per cent, according to forecasters polled by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

The 19 economists who took part in the survey last month - soon after the 2007 economic results were released - trimmed their forecasts following slower than expected Q4 and 2007 figures.

The economy grew 5.4 per cent in Q4 - well below median forecasts of 7.7 per cent in the December 2007 poll. Year-round GDP growth was 7.7 per cent - also below market forecasts of about 8 per cent.

According to the latest poll findings, Singapore’s 2008 economic growth will ‘most likely’ come in between 5 and 5.9 per cent - a full point below the range most expected in the previous poll.

But apparently, not everyone is too bearish. Forecasts for Q1 growth actually hit 8.8 per cent at the top end and average 5.8 per cent, only one point above the lowest estimate.

The second quarter is expected to see the year’s lowest growth of around 4.4 per cent, before a pickup to 4.8 per cent in Q3 and 6.8 per cent in Q4, according to the median estimates.

Meanwhile, the 2008 consumer inflation rate is projected to rise to 5 per cent on average. Some economists see it hitting 7 per cent in Q1, with the median forecast a bit lower at 6.3 per cent.

As for the exchange rate, the forecasts see the Singapore dollar strengthening to 1.32 per US dollar by year-end, though the estimates centre around 1.38, close to the current rate.

Goldman Sachs’ view on the Singapore economy is probably fairly typical of the market’s at this point.

The investment bank’s regional economists recently cut their forecasts of Singapore’s 2008 GDP growth to 5.5 per cent, from 6.4 per cent, ‘on the back of increased external risks’, chiefly a global slowdown led by a US recession.

But they expect the domestic growth engine to keep ‘chugging along’, supported by easier monetary conditions and an expansionary fiscal stance.

THE BOTTOM LINE: Fed slap in market face won’t work this time

Business Times - 11 Mar 2008LAST Friday’s employment report - which was so weak that it had many economists declaring that the US is already in a recession - was bad news.

But it was actually less disturbing than what’s going on in the financial markets. The scariest thing I’ve read recently is a speech given last week by Tim Geithner, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Mr Geithner came as close as a Fed official can to saying that the US is in the midst of a financial meltdown.

To understand the gravity of the situation, you have to know what the Fed did last summer, and again last fall. As late as August, the favourite buzzword of financial officials was ‘contained’: problems in sub-prime mortgages, we were assured, wouldn’t spread to other financial markets or to the economy as a whole. Soon afterwards, however, a full-fledged financial panic began.

Investors pulled hundreds of billions of dollars out of asset-backed commercial paper, a littleknown but important market that has taken over a lot of the work banks used to do. This de facto bank run sent shock waves through the financial system. The Fed responded by rushing money to banks, and markets partially calmed down, for a little while. But by December the panic was back.

Again, the Fed responded by rushing money to banks, this time via a new arrangement called the Term Auction Facility. Again, the markets calmed down, for a while. But again, the respite was only temporary. Last month, another market you’ve never heard of, the US$300 billion market for auction-rate securities (don’t ask), suffered the equivalent of a bank run.

Last week, two big financial companies announced that they had been unable to raise the cash demanded by their lenders. Even Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the giant US government-sponsored mortgage agencies long regarded as safe places to put your money, are now having trouble attracting funds.

One consequence of the crisis is that while the Fed has been cutting the interest rate it controls - the so-called Fed funds rate - the rates that matter most directly to the economy, including rates on mortgages and corporate bonds, have been rising. And that’s sure to worsen the economic downturn.

What’s going on? Mr Geithner described a vicious circle in which banks and other market players who took on too much risk are all trying to get out of unsafe investments at the same time, causing ’significant collateral damage to market functioning’. A report released last Friday by JPMorgan Chase was even more blunt. It described what’s happening as a ’systemic margin call’, in which the whole financial system is facing demands to come up with cash it doesn’t have. The Fed’s latest plan to break this vicious circle is - as the financial website interfluidity.com cruelly but accurately describes it - to turn itself into Wall Street’s pawnbroker.

Banks that might have raised cash by selling assets will be encouraged, instead, to borrow money from the Fed, using the assets as collateral. In a worst-case scenario, the Federal Reserve would find itself owning around US$200 billion worth of mortgage-backed securities. Some observers worry that the Fed is taking over the banks’ financial risk. But what worries me more is that the move seems trivial compared with the size of the problem: US$200 billion may sound like a lot of money, but when you compare it with the size of the markets that are melting down - there are US$11 trillion in US mortgages outstanding - it’s a drop in the bucket.

The only way the Fed’s action could work is through the slap-in-the-face effect: by creating a pause in the selling frenzy, the Fed could give hysterical markets a chance to regain their sense of perspective. And to be fair, that has worked in the past. But slap-in-the-face only works if the market’s problems are mainly a matter of psychology. And given that the Fed has already slapped the market in the face twice, only to see the financial crisis come roaring back, that’s hard to believe.

The third time could be the charm. But I doubt it. Soon, we’ll probably have to do something real about reducing the risks investors face.

A plan to restore the credibility of municipal bond insurance would be a start (how crazy is it that New York State, rather than the federal government, is taking the lead here?). I also suspect that the feds will have to get explicit about guaranteeing the debt of Fannie and Freddie, which really are too big to fail.

Nobody wants to put taxpayers on the hook for the financial industry’s follies; we can all hope that, in the end, a bailout won’t be necessary. But hope is not a plan. — NYT

Investments push S’pore growth again

Business Times - 11 Mar 2008

But the biggest problem facing policy-makers is inflation; if it doesn’t stabilise, we may see more drastic steps

SINGAPORE has enjoyed exceptionally strong and stable gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the last few years. For many years after 1997, Singapore’s economy had suffered volatile growth even as it was buffeted by a series of shocks - the Asian crisis, the bursting of the information technology (IT) bubble and then the Sars episode.

None of them was of Singapore’s making but the city-state suffered sharp downturns in each case. It may seem that a small, open economy like Singapore’s cannot avoid being hurt by external shocks.

However, Singapore had enjoyed prolonged periods of high-growth prior to 1997 and had seemed immune to these shocks. What changed after the Asian crisis?

In our view, the big change was in the role of domestic investment activity. Prior to 1997, Singapore relied heavily on high rates of investment that were sustained over decades. This was key to the  citystate’s strategy of continuously moving up the value chain - from a British naval base to a low-end manufacturing and shipping hub, and then to a major electronics producer.

The last model broke down in the late 1990s. For many years after the Asian crisis, the city-state floundered for a new strategy and investment activity became erratic. Consumption demand was in no position to compensate, with consumers worried about falling asset values and an uncertain environment.

The lack of a domestic demand dynamic meant that exports became the mainstay and, as shown in the chart opposite (see Chart 1), the economy became susceptible to external shocks.

All this has now changed as Singapore’s government and business leaders have set themselves to the task of transforming it into Asia’s ‘Global City’.

As a result, we are now seeing enormous investment projects that include the two integrated resorts, the Formula One circuit, the Gardens by the Bay, the new business district, additional MRT lines, the Orchard Road upgrade and so on.

Residential investment too has picked up as the city prepares for an accelerated pace of immigration.

Thus, in 2007, we saw fixed investment rise by 20.2 per cent which in turn drove the 7.7 per cent increase in GDP even as net exports slowed.

Note that private consumption plays a passive role with its share continuing to fall (38 per cent of GDP in 2007 compared to 45 per cent in 2001). Thus domestic demand is driven largely by swings in fixed investment.

So what does Singapore invest in? In 2007, residential construction rose 26 per cent, non-residential construction went up by 44 per cent, investment in transportation jumped 30 per cent and machinery rose 10 per cent.

In other words, Singapore is still investing in manufacturing but the focus has shifted towards  creating a 21st century commercial/intellectual hub for Asia.

Looking ahead, most of the projects mentioned above are likely to run for at least another two years.

Most of them are fully funded and are likely to continue, irrespective of external events.

There have been press reports that Singapore is facing a credit squeeze that may jeopardise some projects. We see no sign of this with bank credit expanding at over 20 per cent year on year (see Chart 2).

It is possible that some people have not been able to access money but, given the explosive growth in loans, it can hardly be due to the reluctance of banks to expand.

It probably just reflects the strong demand for funds rather than the lack of supply. Thus, we feel that investment momentum will remain strong in 2008.

However, as we also expect exports to weaken due to the faltering US economy, we forecast that GDP growth will slow to 5.8 per cent this year; still a very strong level.

Despite our expectation that growth will slow in 2008, the biggest problem facing policy-makers is inflation. Consumer price inflation jumped to 6.6 per cent year on year in January. As shown in the chart above ( see Chart 3), this is an unprecedented level for this traditionally low-inflation country.

Housing-related costs have jumped especially high, but most other categories are also seeing large increases. This is now a major political issue and is being hotly debated in the media. So, will inflation naturally decline as growth slows?

In our view, slower growth in Singapore and in the world may take off some of the inflationary edge by the middle of 2008, but there is a more fundamental domestic problem. The economy is currently running at full capacity. The unemployment rate is down to 1.6 per cent (see Chart 4) which is the lowest since the Asian crisis.

Similarly, the office occupancy rate has jumped from 82 per cent in December 2003 (see Chart 5) to 93 per cent in December 2007, again levels not seen since 1997.

Thus, a GDP growth rate of 5.8 per cent is good enough to keep inflation on the boil. In a sense, this is the flip side of the investment boom that we are witnessing now.

Singapore’s government is well known for its ’supply-side’ approach to policy-making.

Characteristically, much of the response to the inflation pressure