Home, retail, office rental growth to ease

Business Times – 25 Mar 2008

Housing rentals to rise 5-15% year-on-year in 2008: Knight Frank

PRIVATE housing rents are expected to grow at a slower pace this year than last year, Knight Frank said in a report yesterday.

The property consultancy firm expects a year-on-year rise of 5-15 per cent in 2008 – after a massive 40 per cent year-on-year increase in 2007.

Knight Frank’s estimates are based on the resistance of tenants and companies to even higher rents, and the limited availability of places at foreign schools for children of expatriates.

‘Due to the fact that foreign schools are full and there are long waiting lists faced by children of foreign families who relocated here, housing demand from new foreign family tenants is projected to decrease,’ Knight Frank said.

‘On top of this, foreign tenants as well as corporate HR (departments) have readjusted housing allowances this year, which constricts rental demand according to their budgets.’

Despite this, a demand-supply imbalance could still result in rental rises until a supply of new units is felt significantly from 2009.

About 8,400 new private homes will be completed this year. But the number will expand dramatically in the three years from 2009 to 2011, with an estimated 16,000 to 17,000 units completed each year.

This could put downward pressure on rents, Knight Frank said.

The same holds true for the retail sector. Knight Frank predicts that landlords could face stronger resistance from retailers to rising rents in the later part of 2008 as more space comes on stream.

‘Rents are forecast to maintain at their current level only until early 2008,’ it said. ‘Faced with a larger supply in the pipeline in the second half of 2008, island-wide prime retail rents are projected to appreciate by a relatively modest 5-10 per cent for entire 2008, compared to 22.1 per cent growth in 2007.’

Knight Frank also said growth in office rents and capital values in 2008 and 2009 will likely to be more moderate than in 2007. Office rents are forecast to rise 10-20 per cent year on year, while capital values are expected to increase 10-15 per cent year on year.

JTC will still provide affordable industrial space: Hng Kiang

THE JTC Corp is not deviating from its role to provide affordable factory space, said Minister for Trade and Industry Lim Hng Kiang yesterday in response to a question on whether JTC is shifting its focus with its recent plans to divest its industrial properties into a real estate investment trust (Reit).

This concern was triggered by the recent appointment of Mapletree Investments Pte Ltd (Mapletree) to establish and manage a proposed Reit which will acquire some $1.4-1.6 billion worth of JTC’s high-rise ready-built properties.

Member of Parliament Inderjit Singh raised the concern that this move will further raise the costs of industrial space here. He questioned the role of JTC, saying the earlier spinning off of Ascendas Reit has led to an increase in prices for industrial space. A-Reit, Singapore’s second Reit, was set up by JTC unit Ascendas five years ago and has since expanded by acquiring industrial buildings.

‘If we allow market forces to determine our industrial land prices, then businesses engaged in certain strategic sectors may no longer be able to compete with companies in competing economies which may not be at our stage of development and may offer companies more attractive land costs,’ Mr Singh said. He gave the example of China, where industrial land is more attractively priced.

In response, Mr Lim said: ‘JTC’s role remains the same. You must look at JTC’s role in two key areas – land and prepared industrial estates like flatted factories.’

For the flatted factories space, JTC is a small player in the market with a market share of around 20 per cent and hence takes its pricing cue from the market.

‘It is this sector that we are divesting because we believe that industrial space in Singapore is fairly competitive market,’ Mr Lim added. ‘So JTC need not stay in this area. JTC will concentrate on land.’

While the pricing of JTC’s industrial factory space is determined by the market, the pricing for land is benchmarked against competitive locations.

Mr Lim said the JTC is very careful ‘to make sure that we do not price ourselves out of the market.’

Source: Business Times 4 Mar 08

Development fees may jump for non-residential sites

For residential areas where strong land sales have lifted values, charges could surge

DEVELOPERS may soon have to pay more to redevelop non-residential sites such as land for hotels or hospitals.

A key government fee for redeveloping sites will be revised again next month, and property consultants expect it to be raised for land used for purposes other than to build homes.

The good news is: Development charges should not jump much for residential plots this time, after already having been jacked up a few times last year.

Selected areas, however, could still see bigger fee hikes, said consultants. These include Novena, Geylang, Ang Mo Kio and Orchard Boulevard, where recent strong land sales have pushed up values.

Development charges, which can amount to millions of dollars, are based on recent land and property values. They are calculated based on sectors and 118 locations, and adjusted in March and September every year to keep them up to date.

A rise in these charges for residential sites in some areas means that, for instance, it would be more expensive for developers to buy and redevelop collective sale estates in these parts of Singapore.

Overall, however, the current slowdown in the housing market means that the upcoming round of revisions should result in only very moderate rises for most residential sites.

Development charges for non-landed residential sites are likely to go up by only 10 per cent on average, compared to 58 per cent last September, said Ms Tay Huey Ying, the director of research and consultancy at Colliers International.

She said the soaring land prices that sent development charges surging last year have ’screeched almost to a halt’ since last September.

In particular, the collective sale market – previously the main driver of spikes in development charges – has quietened to near-silence in the last few months.

Consultancy CB Richard Ellis also said it expects only ‘moderate increases’ in selected locations. These include Sixth Avenue and Sentosa for landed sites and Ardmore and Orchard Boulevard for non-landed sites.

It suggested that the Government may also slow the rate of rises in development fees after taking into consideration the ’subdued state’ of the residential market. The once-frenzied response to both development sites and new home launches has waned significantly.

On the other hand, non-residential sites – including hospital, hotel, office and industrial land – are still seeing buoyant activity and could be subject to heftier fee hikes.

Hospital land could see the biggest overall hike in charges, boosted by the recent record bid for a stateowned site at Novena, said Colliers’ Ms Tay. She is projecting a rise of between 15 per cent and 20 per cent on average for hospital sites.

DTZ Debenham Tie Leung added that funds have been moving their investments into hospital assets in Singapore, which could also prompt a rise in the development fees for this sector.

Also, industrial land – which saw a rise in development fees of just 2 per cent in the last round – should experience a much bigger jump, said consultants.

Office and hotel plots are also expected to have their development charges raised, by at least 30 per cent, said Jones Lang LaSalle.

Its director for South Asia research, Mr Chua Yang Liang, said the fees could be pushed up by recent office land sales at Jalan Sultan and Toa Payoh, and hotel plot sales at Upper Pickering Street and New Market Road.

 

Source: The Straits Times 22 Feb 08

Playfair Rd site gets bullish top bid of $142 psf ppr

Sim Lian unit’s offer is whopping 63% above second highest bid

A 60-YEAR leasehold industrial site at Playfair Road has attracted a top bid of $142 per square foot per plot ratio (psf ppr) from Sim Lian Development unit Trio Link Development – a record price for such a site in the Ubi/Paya Lebar/Eunos area.

The tender for the 92,870 sq ft reserve-list plot attracted 12 bids, reflecting growing interest in industrial property as it comes into play amid the breather in residential and office values, says Colliers International director (industrial) Tan Boon Leong.

Sim Lian’s top bid of $33 million, or $142.13 psf ppr, was a huge 63 per cent above the next highest bid of $20.23 million, or $87.13 psf ppr, by Orion-Three Development.

Orion group, which is linked to Indonesian interests, has also been active in state tenders for industrial sites. It clinched plots at Serangoon North Ave 4 and Changi North St 1 in 2006.

Asked about Sim Lian’s aggressive bidding in yesterday’s tender, executive director Ken Kuik said the company had been encouraged by recent demand for strata-titled flatted and ramp-up factories at its Vertex project at Ubi Ave 4/Ubi Link.

‘We’ve sold about 160 of the 200 units released since September last year, achieving an average price of about $330 psf,’ he said.

The eight-storey property has 552 strata-titled units. Sim Lian is developing it on a 60-year leasehold site it won at a state tender in 2006.

Like the Playfair Road site contested yesterday, the Ubi plot is zoned for Business 1, allowing clean and light industrial and warehouse uses.

Mr Kuik said Sim Lian plans to develop the Playfair Road plot into a 13-storey project with strata-titled units for sale.

He noted that the site is just a few minutes’ walk from Upper Paya Lebar MRT Station on the Circle Line.

Colliers’ Mr Tan estimates Sim Lian’s breakeven cost could be around $260 psf, considering the saleable area for such industrial developments can exceed the maximum permitted gross floor area by 15-20 per cent after factoring in features like terraced areas and air-con ledges.

‘This is the first time a 60-year leasehold industrial site is being sold in the area, which traditionally has freehold industrial properties. That may have added to the plot’s attraction,’ he suggested.

Property consultants say the $142 psf ppr that Sim Lian offered for the Playfair plot surpasses the last high achieved in the Ubi/Paya Lebar/Eunos area – $85.50 psf ppr for a 60-year plot at Eunos Link/Kaki Bukit Avenue 1 in 1996.

However, yesterday’s top bid is still shy of the island-wide high of $170 psf ppr achieved late last year for a 30-year leasehold site near Commonwealth MRT Station.

The other bidders in yesterday’s tender were KNG Development, Soilbuild Group, Prosperity Realty (linked to Hotel Royal’s Lee family), HLH Development & Brothers (Holdings), Superbowl Land, See Young Investments, Lian Beng Group unit LB Property, Boustead Projects, Boon Keng Development and  Lim Huay Ren, which placed the lowest bid of $12 million or $51.68 psf ppr.

 

Source: Business Times 15 Feb 08

New industrial sites offered in first half of 2008

Land release to keep up supply, ease pressure on business costs

ONE new industrial site – in Woodlands – will be put up for tender early this year, while three in north and central Singapore will be open for applications.

The land release, announced by the Ministry of Trade and Industry yesterday, is designed to keep up the supply of land and take some of the pressure off business costs.

All four plots listed yesterday come with 60-year leases.

A 1.68ha plot in Woodlands Industrial Park is on the confirmed list and will be put up for tender in May.

Another three – a 1.14ha site in Ubi Avenue 4, a 0.54ha site in Kallang Pudding Road and a 0.8ha plot in Serangoon North Avenue 4 – will go on the reserve list in the first half of the year. These will be put up for sale only if a potential buyer commits to bidding a minimum price acceptable to the Government.

Apart from these plots, there are four others – in Yishun Avenue 6, Toh Tuck Avenue and Ubi Avenue 4 – already available for developers to bid on.

Property consultants said the latest list was a good mix of locations to meet demand for industrial space, but some pointed out that the amount of land had shrunk from previous programmes.

In the first half of last year, the Government put out a total of two sites on the confirmed list. This meant the sites were put up for tender at specific dates. It also offered another two sites under the same conditions in the second half.

The head of Knight Frank’s research and consultancy, Mr Nicholas Mak, said the Government is probably toning down as there is enough potential supply out there.

Mr Donald Han, the managing director of Cushman & Wakefield, expects demand to come from two areas: companies that have been forced out of their office premises on the fringes of the Central Business District because of rising rents; and firms bearing the brunt of rising rents within existing high-end industrial parks.

The latter, he said, would be looking to buy their own premises to lock in property costs.

Rents in districts like Alexandra Technopark have risen from about $3 per sq ft (psf) to more than $4 psf now and may continue heading northwards this year, Mr Han said.

‘We will see spillover demand coming out of high-tech parks and going into industrial space,’ he said.

He predicted that the new sites in well-located areas like Kallang Pudding and Toh Tuck would see the most action, especially from developers wanting to build multi-user facilities and sell them on a strata-title basis.

But he has also urged the Government to put out more sites around more centrally-located areas like Paya Lebar, Kallang and the Lower Delta area, which are popular for their accessibility.

‘The sooner we get this out, the sooner supply will meet demand,’ added Mr Han.

Savills’ industrial director, Mr Dominic Peters, felt there was some demand for industrial sites up north, but there could be a mismatch in supply due to the nature of the sites being offered.

The new 1.68ha Woodlands plot put up for tender, for example, may be too small for companies looking for premises on the ground floor.

Mr Peters said developers would need at least 2ha to 3ha to build efficient ‘ramp-up’ buildings, which give each industrial unit in a multi-storey building ground-floor access via giant ramps.

Still, he expected demand for industrial sites to be ‘good’ for the next one to two years.

 

Source: The Straits Times 1 Jan 08